The Break Up

In general people do not like surprises and uncertainties, business and common people alike, and hence things that will ensure stability and continuity will get support from the majority of the people. That's what exactly happened in the Indonesian politics these days, when the break up of the coalition between Partai Demokrat and Golkar, SBY - JK in particular, received negative reactions by the business community in particular. For common people, however, there were mixed reactions.


The organization machineries of Partai Demokrat are perceived to be not as strong as those of Golkar, either in campaign times, in the government, as well as in the parliament. PD won the legislative election against Golkar not because of its effective political and organizational machineries, but it was because of SBY factors. Hence PD's intention to continue partnership with Golkar was quite logical. Golkar’s platform also matches well with PD’s as nationalist parties.

Golkar on the other hand has no chance to rule the country again, at least for another three general elections, and hence JK's bid for presidency was seen as merely emotionally driven move and will be flatly futile, regardless how good JK is. Golkar will certainly have better chance and exposures to prove their commitment towards democracy and clean government when they are parts of the executive. Golkar's bid to form coalition with PDI-P is a weak move, as it only gives benefit to euphoric PDI-P due to the break up, but no benefit at all for Golkar.

To me, with the current Golkar's position, JK is finished. He should consider the party's future, instead of pushing ahead with his personal pride, which seemingly considered as party's pride as well. Even if Golkar can not take the VP's position, it still can put some of its best cadres in the cabinet and play important roles in the country's politics for the next five years.

For SBY, and the country, it would be much better for him to choose VP either from Golkar party or from a politically independent and nationalist person who have strong credibility among business community and people in general. Choosing VP from other parties will only weaken his position and chances in the upcoming presidential election.
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